Curso de Estadística, Granada (España) 2010, 21-22 Junio

Statistics in Paternity and Relationship Testing

Jefatura Superior de Policía de Andalucía Oriental

C/ La Palmita, 1. 18014 - Granada (Spain)

IMPORTANT: SEE BUS TRANSFER TIMETABLE IN ANNEX BELOW

Lecturer: Max P. Baur, with Antonio Amorim and Ángel Carracedo

Maximum number of participants: 60-75

Registration fee: 100 euros (GHEP members); 150 euros (non-GHEP members)

Necessary tools: paper, pencil, simple pocket calculator

Optional: if possible, bring a laptop with WINDOWS (XP, Vista, 7)

Prior knowledge: none

Language: English + help from Spanish and Portuguese colleagues (Ángel Carracedo and Antonio Amorim)

MONDAY JUNE 21, 2010

09:30 -10:45 h Registration and payment (only cash, no cards)

11:00 - 12:30 Joint lecture for all participants

I) Introduction
II) Elementary probability theory:
a. Probability model
b. Additivity of probabilities for disjunct events
c. Independence - multiplication
d. Conditional probabilities

12:30 - 14:00 Lunch break

14:00 - 15:30 Joint lecture for all participants

III) Elementary population genetics: a. Frequencies - gene (allele) frequencies, genotype frequencies, phenotype frequencies, haplotype frequencies
b. Hardy - Weinberg equilibrium IV) Simple paternity case - Trio a. Hypotheses b. Calculation of X and Y
c. Likelihood ratio Y/X and paternity index PI
d. Posterior probability W, Bayes Theorem
 

15:30 - 16:00 Coffee break

16:00 - 18:00 3 groups of 25 participants in separate rooms

V) Practical problems from population genetics: a. Estimation of gene frequencies from a sample
b. Testing of Hardy Weinberg Equilibrium
VI) Simple paternity testing by computer: a. Installation of the software W-VAT on the laptops
b. Trio cases / Duo cases 

18:00 h End of workshop day 1

 

TUESDAY JUNE 22, 2010

9:30 - 11:00 Joint lecture for all participants

I) Complex cases 1: a. Deficiency case with grandparents
b. General deficiency cases - complex pedigrees, multiple hypotheses

11:00 - 11:30 Coffee break

11:30 - 12:30 Joint lecture for all participants

II) Complex cases 2: a. Y-chromosomal markers, X-chromosomal markers
b. Possible mutations, possible silent alleles

12:30 - 14:00 Lunch break

14:00 - 16:00 3 groups of 25 participants in separate rooms

III) Solving complex cases with the software: a. Complex pedigrees
b. X-chrom. / Y-chrom. Markers
c. Possible mutations

Please bring your own problems to the workshop !!! 

16:00 - 16:30 Coffee break

16:30 - 17:30 Joint session

 IV) Final discussion of general questions and problems in the plenum 

ANNEX
BUS TRANSFER FROM/TO HOTEL LUNA & HOTEL NAZARÍES

MONDAY 21

BUS 1 FROM H. NAZARÍES (9:00 h) & H. LUNA (9:15 h) TO JEFATURA SUPERIOR DE POLICÍA

18:00 h BUS 1 FROM JEFATURA SUPERIOR DE POLICÍA TO H. LUNA-NAZARÍES

TUESDAY 22

BUS 1 FROM H. NAZARÍES (8:30 h) & H. LUNA (8:45 h) TO JEFATURA SUPERIOR DE POLICÍA

17:30 h BUS 1 FROM JEFATURA SUPERIOR DE POLICÍA TO H. LUNA-NAZARÍES